Tonight, Butler plays for the NCAA Championship against the “Evil Empire” that is Duke. Most experts are predicting a Duke win (some calling for a blowout.) IF Butler is to have a chance, here are 5 things that need to happen.
5.) Matt Howard must play and play WELL: -Last game, Matt Howard had a nightmare game. Foul trouble, missed layups and a concussion. Not what you would call a “marquee” day for the big man from Connersville. Tonight, being Butler’s only true “big,” he HAS to play, score and rebound. If Matt doesn’t play well, it could get real ugly for the ‘Dawgs. If Matt can escape the first half without getting into foul trouble, that would be a huge boost for Butler. They need him tonight more than ever.
4.) Rebounding Difference: -I am not saying that Butler HAS to beat Duke on the boards, but they have to limit the damage. Duke is the biggest team Butler will see all year and rebounding isn’t a real strong attribute for Butler. If they can limit the rebound difference by around 6-7, consider that a win for Butler.
3.) Turnovers: -This is where Butler can really take advantage of Duke. Nobody does a better job of forcing turnovers on defense than Butler. The second half of each game in the tournament has been dominated by Butler’s defense. Nobody has done a better job of getting his team amped up defensively and making adjustments this postseason than Brad Stevens. For Butler to win, they need to win the turnover battle by at least 5 (maybe more.)
2.) First 5 Minutes: -The first 5 minutes will be key for Butler. In their upset wins over Syracuse and Kansas State, the Bulldogs clicked on all cylinders and got out to huge leads. Their emotions will be running wild tonight and the energy provided from a hometown crown (90% Butler Fans tonight) will carry them. However, Duke loves being the bad guy and loves these situations. Butler HAS to have a good first 5 minutes to build confidence and let the Dukies know the game is on!!
1.) Great Individual Matchups: -NORED vs SCHEYER: Aside from Purdue’s Chris Kramer, NOBODY is a better on the ball defender than Butler’s Ronald Nored. His confidence, moxy and quickness has helped him shut down some of the nations best for over 2 years now. This is the same Ronald Nored who completely shut down Stephon Curry a year ago. He will most likely get Jon Scheyer tonight. Scheyer is a player who often gets better as the game goes on and is seasoned at playing big in big games. He can get hot in a hurry. Ask Purdue about Jon Scheyer’s ability to get hot and carry a team when they need him.
-HAYWARD vs SINGLER: Perhaps this is the Indiana bias in me, but I have often stated that that Kyle Singler was one of the most overrated players in college basketball. If Robbie Hummel of Purdue or Gordon Hayward of Butler had the word “DUKE” across their chest, they would have been household names a long time ago. I think BOTH are better players. For Butler to win, Hayward needs to own Kyle Singler on BOTH ends of the floor tonight. Hayward needs to make Singler work on defense. I also want to see Gordon Hayward play a little more selfish at times. Butler sometimes hits a drought and I think Gordon is the guy who get things rolling again. I want to see Gordon being aggressive again tonight like he was against Michigan State. A great performance by Hayward tonight could not only land him in the NBA Lottery, but could cap off an amazing story for the small school on the north side of Indianapolis.